Market insights

Markets Hold Steady Through Volatility

The FED cut their base rate by the slightly unexpected 50 points.

This caused big moves in GBP/USD and EUR/USD rates.

However, what went up, came back down further....then came back up!

That leaves rates similar to where they were 24 hours ago.

However that's ahead of the big one at lunch time.

The UK interest rate decision.

Analysts believe a zero change is nailed on to stay at 5%.

However most analysts believed the FED would only slice 25 points off their base rate last night.

The interesting number might be the monetary policy committee vote count.

There are 9 members of the committee meaning there's always a deciding vote....although there are 3 options on the table. Rate up, rate down, or no change.

Consensus suggests the members will vote 7 for unchanged and 2 for a cut. This could be the mover of the markets if it's different to this, and there's also the monetary policy committees report which analyses their decisions.

With GBP/EUR rattling near highs, there could be a degree of risk coming off the table, and forward contracts being entered into. Statistically speaking it seems more likely the Pound could drop versus the Euro, but time will tell.

If that wasn't enough, breakfast tomorrow sees the UKs public sector net borrowing position and retail sales numbers.

Anyone trading Pounds in any direction and into any currency should be watchful in the next 24 hours.

The early hours of tomorrow sees both the Peoples Bank of China and the Bank of Japan release their interest rate decisions.

The Japanese Yen, in particular, will be followed intently as the move from negative -0.1% last decision date shocked the global stock markets and wiped billions off valuations in 24 hours.

Business news centres on the upcoming BoE rate decision.

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Economic calendar

UK: 12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision

UK: 12:00 MPC Vote Count

UK: 12:00 MPC Statement

CHN: Friday 02:15 PBoC Interest Rate Decision

JPN: Friday BoJ Interest rate Decision

UK: Friday 07:00 Public Sector Net Borrowing

UK: Friday 07:00 Retail Sales

As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.

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