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For access to your online account please contact your personal account manager, alternatively email team@regencyfx.com.
A strong year-end performance in the services sector and a rebound in manufacturing lifted Q4 GDP to +0.1%, defying expectations of a -0.1% contraction. The key question now is how labour market pressures and weak confidence will impact future growth. However, this data reinforces the view that the Bank of England will take a cautious approach to timing any rate cuts.
Meanwhile, US CPI exceeded expectations yesterday, with transport costs driving the upside surprise. The probability of Fed rate cuts this year continues to decline, a stance reinforced by Powell’s Senate remarks on Tuesday. His message was clear: growth remains strong, the neutral rate has risen, and there’s no urgency to lower rates.
Looking ahead, today’s key releases include US Employment data and the US Producer Price Index—widely regarded as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
GER: 07:00 Final HICP Inflation
UK: 07:00 GDP
UK: 07:00 GDP (December)
UK: 07:00 Industrial Output
UK: 07:00 Goods Trade Balance
EU-20: 10:00 Industrial Production
US: 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims
US: 13:30 PPI Final Demand Inflation
As ever we look forward to keeping you in the loop and look out for our next update.
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